Livermore Real Estate

Livermore market looks at world news for motivation

chris greenman — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 18:50:00 +0000

"DARLING, I DON'T KNOW WHY I GO TO EXTREMES...TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW, THERE AIN'T NO IN-BETWEENS..." Billy Joel The financial markets endured another week of extreme bipolar behavior, with enormous intra-day mood swings that normally wouldn't be seen over the course of several weeks. While Bonds and home loan rates wildly rocketed higher and plummeted lower on a daily basis throughout the week, fixed home loan rates ended up improved by about .25% for the week overall. And last week...the action started unusually early, stemming from some almost unprecedented weekend actions by the Fed.
Last Sunday night, the news broke that the Fed had not only decided to make a move to lower the Discount Rate by .25%, just two days ahead of when their normally scheduled announcement would arrive, but also that they had helped facilitate the bailout of investment giant Bear Stearns. The 85-year-old company had its stock purchased by JPM Chase at $2 per share, for $236 Million...yep, that's Million with an M. Bear Stearns was trading near $90 at the end of February, with a 52-week high near $160. Bear Stearns was the number one buyer of sub-prime home loans, with a huge appetite for this type of paper - and they bought sub-prime transactions with both fists, a strategy that certainly came back to haunt them.
Adding to the manic-depressive mix was a huge news day on Tuesday, starting with earnings and outlook from two other major financial players - Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers - who reported much more positive results than had been anticipated. Particularly on the heels of the Bear Stearns situation, this was very welcome news to a jittery Stock market. New construction numbers came out mixed, along with a hotter than expected read on wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index...and as if it all weren't enough already, the Fed released their official decision to cut the Fed Funds Rate by .75%. Many people expected a deeper cut, but they likely kept the cut to only .75% because of continuing fears of inflation.
But wait...there's still more. On Wednesday, investment banker Morgan Stanley also came out with a great earnings report, which again was seen as good news by the Stock market, but pulled money out of Bonds. But then...along came big news from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), who announced that they lifted special capital restrictions that had been put in place for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This will allow these firms to pump $200 Billion into the mortgage market by way of buying Mortgage Bonds. The anticipated increase in demand was very good news for Bonds and home loan rates, which immediately improved on the news.

Home Sales in Livermore are on the rise again....

chris greenman — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 18:30:00 +0000

For the first time, well since I can remember, home sales in Livermore have been recorded as being on the rise. What does this mean? All indications in history would suggest that we have hit bottom, however, history can sometimes be a big tease and a poor indicator of the future, so lets keep a tight watch on the market and see what happens. Livermore real estate will make its come back!!

REO's are a hit in the Livermore Real Estate Market

chris greenman — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 23:41:00 +0000

Bank Owned Properties are smashing in sales in Livermore, the reason is simple.
1. Their priced right
2. The Bank makes a fast decision
3. The buyer gets an insanely great deal
4. The Bank writes off the loss

This coupled with the trend of summer sales and increase volume and lowering inventory of REO's should make our Livermore Real Estate Market get interesting very shortly.

Livermore Real Estate could be heating up

chris greenman — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 01:28:00 +0000

Well the Livermore real estate market has gained some momentum this week following a couple years of disappointment. My phone has been ringing more then in the last two years. Could this be the sign of good summer, could real estate finally have bottomed out? I have seen more action on listings then I can remember, I have had numerous first time home buyers call me to request information on how to get into their first house. Hold on to your hats because things are looking better.

Livermore Real Estate levels out

chris greenman — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 22:00:00 +0000

The good news for people wanting to sell their houses in Livermore.

1. Conforming rates are going to change, this will enable people to get much better loans up to about 635 thousand.
2. Banks are not giving away houses they own anymore.
3. We are running out of room to bottom out anymore.

The Bad news

1. Houses are sitting a long time, a 6 month average if you put your house on the market today at market price.
2. People still want deals.
3. Because of all the 100% programs, most people are very upside down in their houses.

What is going to happen in the future.

Things are probably going to stay about the same for quite some time, give it a year, new election, new attitude, people start spending, rates will drop even more and the effects of all previous rate drops will begin to materialize. Hang in there, as long as you dictate when you sell your property, you cant lose in real estate.

Bank owned properties are the hottest thing out there

chris greenman — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 23:05:00 +0000

Livermore real estate has a new client, investors for bank owned properties is the new ticket. Numerous agents have left the real estate battlefield in search of jobs that actually pay. Unfortunately, there are very few people buying houses, let alone getting approved for loans. This leaves veteren agents left for the most part trying to satisfy the new demand. Inventory again is the problem with these types of houses as it is the new thing coupled with very low-ball offers at that. Then the waiting game begins, and seems never to end. If the bank finally approves your offer, unless you have a whole lot of cash, the waiting game begins for loan approvals.

When will this end?

Well the housing market has taking its toll on many other jobs, therefore effecting the economy as well. Enough that last week Fed Chairman has hinted at drastic rate reductions. We might be outta the woods soon after the next election is my prediction. My advice, weather the storm as long as possible, thngs will change, they always do.

And the slump continues in the Livermore Real Estate Market

chris greenman — Tue, 20 Nov 2007 23:56:00 +0000

What is going on in this market? New Home builders have all but stopped building, banks own more of the houses for sale then owners, and getting a loan is next to impossible. The Real Estate market is still adjusting to years of escalating prices of homes, expect this to continue into 2008.

When will this stop? Time will tell, but this point in history is by far the best time in about 15 years to buy a house providing you have good credit, a down payment, and verifiable income. Sound tough or does it sound like what people use to have to do in order to buy a house? History does have a tendency to repeat itself.........

Has the bottom of the market hit in Livermore?

chris greenman — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 22:55:00 +0000

I don't know but there are signs it has. With the recent attempt by many home builders to auction inventory and the 100% sales on those auctions the bottom has possibly been set. The reason for this is the demand has been met by the inventory in these cases and this usually indicates a bottom. The problem is that bottom has been set pretty low. Good deals are getting harder to find because of the multiple offers on those property's.

Livermore Real Estate stays poised

chris greenman — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 18:00:00 +0000

Livermore's real estate market is still in it's hurry up and wait mode. This is pretty much a stale market that we need to wait on. Buyer's are still being cautious about what they commit to expecting more drops in the market. Seller's in most cases are into their house's more then they can sell them for or the bank is selling their houses for them.

Here is the unique thing we should all eye. Banks like investments as well, banks are starting to have the same thoughts most investors do, "this is a good time to buy a house." Because of this, those buyer's that are waiting for more declines in the market, might be waiting too long and might not see the drop in interest rates either. It is real simple, those pioneers that sat foot into the boats to come to America didn't wait to see if others made it safely but they did end up owning all the country. Timing is the key to life in almost anything you do, what time is it for you?

Livermore's buyer's market continues!!

chris greenman — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 00:49:00 +0000

The market continues to stump all of us in the real estate industry, however, we know there is great deals out there. In the last month 100% of my closed transactions have been investors speculating on the market. There is so many awesome deals in Livermore it really is a horrible time to be a seller. Amid a drastic change in the market, expect these deals to continue in the Livermore real estate market throughout the winter months. Gear up for a change coming up in our election year.

Government is starting to see the light, Livermore reacts.

chris greenman — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 22:49:00 +0000

Well up until last weekend my phone had been very lonely for conversation on the other end. However, with the Fed not only lending some money out to banks, it went ahead and lowered rates as well. We are getting poised in my opinion for one more rate drop in the next month but also the stabilization of home values as well if not an increase in these values. Unlike interest rates, this factor could prove the best news the real estate market has seen in the last two years. Livermore is set in my opinion for a change in the tide and it's coming soon. With more information set to come by the Feds I will keep my reader's informed in the weeks to come on conditions that will effect the Liverore Real Estate market.

Sub prime effects the world, and ultimately the housing in Livermore, see why.

chris greenman — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 21:18:00 +0000

Livermore real estate must pay close attention to world news simply because of the impact of rates and criteria for banks on lending for housing. The Reuters article below puts emphasis on how help is on its way. One way or another this will have a positive impact on our Livermore real estate.
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday sought to reassure investors and head off spreading credit problems by vowing to provide liquidity and injecting the most money in the banking system since shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks.
The U.S. central bank rarely issues statements about its market operations and the largess of its fund injections reflect the seriousness that it views the current disorder in credit markets.
Much of the disorder stems from problems in U.S. housing markets where defaults on sub prime mortgages to less creditworthy borrowers are rising.
With the problems spreading to Europe and affecting financial markets globally, the Fed worked in tandem with other central banks to pump liquidity into the banking system.
"The Federal Reserve is providing liquidity to facilitate the orderly functioning of financial markets," the Fed said in a statement shortly before U.S. stock markets opened on Friday and resumed a downward spiral.
The U.S. central bank said it was doing so because it anticipates banks might encounter some difficulties amid current market turmoil.
"In current circumstances, depository institutions may experience unusual funding needs because of dislocations in money and credit markets," the Fed statement said, adding it will provide funds as needed to keep the fed funds rate close to its target of 5.25 percent.
The last time the central bank made a similar statement was after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, when it also said it would do what was necessary to keep markets functioning normally.
The Fed pumped a total of $38 billion in temporary funds in three separate occasions on Friday, a highly unusual move not seen since July 2000.
The three cash infusions were the largest single day amount since $50.35 billion on September 19, 2001, and more than five times the amount that was injected a week ago on Friday.
On Thursday, the Fed added $24 billion in two separate operations, which were somewhat larger than expected. But short-term interest rates stayed firm despite the ample liquidity.
"Today's action indicates that (Fed policy-makers) are being more pro-active to ensure financial stability," said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York.
The fed funds rate was trading at 6 percent in early morning trade, but fell back to 5.25 percent shortly after the operation, in line with the target set by the central bank. It was last trading at 5.25 percent.
Central banks worldwide have now injected at least $326.3 billion in the past 48 hours to prevent markets from spinning into a global liquidity squeeze. Short-term interest rates spiked in response to banks' decreased willingness to lend to each other.
In its statement, the Fed added that, as always, its discount window was open as a source of short-term funds for banks. Many banks regard the regard the discount window as a lender of last resort and avoid it. WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters)

Investors in Livermore will reap the benefits

chris greenman — Fri, 03 Aug 2007 21:35:00 +0000

There are more deals in Livermore real estate then Wal Mart has on any given Sunday. We are seeing pre 2002 prices on key areas of Livermore that are in position to reap all the benefits of the new downtown. With foreclosures, REO's, and other bank owned properties comes desperate homeowners that just want out. If you are an investor or a first time home buyer looking for a house in the Livermore area, there hasn't been a better time to poise up for a steal. When the housing market rebounds (AND IT WILL), investors today will look to cash in like never before.............

More bad news for this housing market, will Livermore follow?

chris greenman — Thu, 26 Jul 2007 18:02:00 +0000

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new homes dropped more than expected in June, while orders for long-lasting U.S.-made goods were weaker than analysts thought, according to reports on Thursday that raised fresh concerns about economy.

This particular news has been taunting the bay area, when will we see an end to this saga?

I feel that until the foreclosures start to slow down to normal levels and the stock market sees investors putting money in bank and mortgage securities we are in this for a while.

The good news is that Livermore has seen the levels of pricing stay reasonably unchanged. Although the prices have fallen they have fallen at a level way below our surrounding cities. Stay tuned to see where we will be headed come winter. The buyer's market continues!!

Livermore should eye national news, makes last post relevant

chris greenman — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 17:29:00 +0000

TIME FOR A HOUSING CHECK-UP (livermore real estate although individual, should be poised for investment based on National Data)

The health of the housing sector is due for a check-up in the form of new figures on sales of both new and existing homes.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors will report on sales of existing homes in June. According to the consensus in a Reuters poll of economists, sales fell to a
5.87-million-unit annual rate from 5.99 million in May.
The following day, the Commerce Department issues a report on new home sales. The consensus view is for an annual rate of 895,000 in June, which would be down from 915,000 in May.
The housing sector has been a concern to investors as subprime mortgages sold to less credit-worthy borrowers have experienced rising defaults. Some hedge funds with investments in securities linked to the mortgages have had huge losses.
"One of the things that has puzzled us is that with the weakness seen in housing, the jobs picture has remained so strong," said Schaeffer of Becker Capital Management, which has $2.7 billion in assets under management.
Schaeffer said a lot of the jobs created from 2003 to 2006 were associated with a booming housing sector, so for employment to hold up while housing is in a slump seems to be "a little bit of a disconnect."
In addition to the report on new home sales on Thursday, other data that day includes durable goods orders. According to the median forecast in the Reuters poll, orders rose 1.8 percent last month after May's revised drop of 2.4 percent.
Schaeffer said while some improvement in durable goods orders is to be expected after the May decline, Caterpillar's problems, in part due to weak sales, could cause expectations to be scaled back somewhat. Durable goods are washing machines, refrigerators and other big-ticket items expected to last three years or more.
Friday will bring the first report on how the U.S. economy did in the second quarter of 2007. A rebound to an annual growth rate of 3.2 percent is forecast after a dismal pace of just 0.7 percent in the first quarter.
A final July reading of consumer sentiment will come out on Friday in a report from the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

My readers should stay tuned to see where these reports fall and how it will effect our local Livermore real estate market and Livermore home sales as well.
(Source Reuters)

chris greenman — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 21:50:00 +0000

NEW YORK (Reuters) U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday on deepening concerns that a crisis in lending could spread and a warning from the Federal Reserve chairman that weakness in housing could hurt economic growth for some time.

How will this concern your Livermore home? How does this effect your Livermore real estate prices. Is this a good time to buy a Livermore home? Is the market going to fall more? Which Livermore Realtor has the best chance to sell your home?

No one knows the answer to any of these questions.

What I can tell all my readers is that usually when the stock market is doing well (which it is), the housing market suffers to some extent. The key thing to do to enable yourself positioned for prosperity is to diversify yourself as equal as possible in real Estate and the Stock Market.

If you have enough equity in your home it doesn't hurt to invest some of it in the Stock Market, just like if you have enjoyed profit in your stock market holdings recently, it wouldn't hurt to pull some of that money out and get involved in this "Buyer's market."

There are specific strategies that you can target that paints a clearer picture of what I just described, feel free to contact me for more info.

Livermore loses some inventory, that is a good thing!

chris greenman — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 18:37:00 +0000

As of 7/9/07 at 1130 hours Livermore has 498 houses on the market, 91 houses are pending, so lets do the math together.

Of the 498 house available, roughly 18.5% of them are pending, giving us a market time of about 5 months. This is better news than two months ago but hardly good news. This basically means that the average house will take 5 months to sell in Livermore.

Nothing too crazy with options other then price your house right and it has the best chance of selling.

The good news is however, that interest rates have crept downward in the past couple of weeks making it an even better time to buy a home.

There are 576 homes for sale in Livermore as of Wed at 9:53 PM PDT.

chris greenman — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 05:01:00 +0000

Inventory is up, usually a normal pattern for this time of year. However, for Livermore Real Estate this is the highest number of homes for sale I have seen in a very very long time.

This tells us many things, but the most important thing I want my readers to realize is that it is a buyer's market, and not a good time to sell!!!! Let me repeat that, it is not a good time to sell!!!

With prices dropping and inventory going up, now is not the time to bail out of the Livermore real estate market. Patience will win and will let you prosper, impatience won't.

This inventory surge also tells us prices most likely will drop even more, something I didn't think would happen in Livermore this year. This will continue until we hit the winter months, at which time people will start to pull their houses off the market and inventory will go down.

The only relevant fact I should add is that there are more houses in Livermore then ever before because of the new construction that has happened, and the rise in population over the last five years. I still think there is enough info to warrant more price drops in Livermore.

Stop reading the Newspapers

chris greenman — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 20:51:00 +0000

When it comes to Livermore Real Estate and the housing market in general, stay away from local and AP newspaper stats. It has been my experience and expertise that after you read most articles, you walk away scratching your head because not much was said. For instance today's article in the Valley Times said housing prices will drop "In the Headlines," however after reading the article they seem to think that there is a 52% chance the housing market will drop. Gee, thats a hard prediction, that writer must work at the fair.

The bottom line my readers should know is that no one really knows what is going to happen with the housing market, especially the Livermore housing market. The best indicator of most any event in Real Estate is to look at the history. We are in a normal cycle, no panics, no worries. The housing market will turn around, we have been flat for two years, expect good things to happen in our future. As a local Realtor, Broker, and resident of Livermore I can tell you that I am excited to see direction this city is going, you will not go wrong in Livermore, the good thing is, everything in Livermore is on sale.............Buyer's market is just part of the big cycle.

Bonds Take an Alarming Fall, just in time for Christopher Ross Financial deput

chris greenman — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:40:00 +0000

"WISH ME LUCK!" Last words spoken by Niagara Falls barrel rider...But luck hasn't been on the side of home loan rates, as Mortgage Bonds tipped over the edge on Thursday, adding to the brutal cascade lower which began on May 8th, and causing home loan rates to move significantly higher along the way. Last week the damage was particularly dramatic, as Thursday brought the largest single-day worsening in Bonds and home loan rates seen in three years. Although Friday brought a small amount of recovery, home loan rates still increased by .25% across the board overall.
So what happened last week? There was a sell-off in Mortgage Bonds on the news of Central Bank rate hikes in other countries, as these hikes make other global investments more attractive than our US Bonds for those seeking higher yields. The reduced demand for Mortgage Bonds causes prices to fall and home loan rates to rise. But it was not the news of other Central Banks hiking rates that caused the extreme reaction - this event was simply the proverbial "straw that broke the camels back", as Bonds were primed for a move lower after blowing through another technical "floor of support". Keep reading to learn how important these floors of support are to home loan rates...

Bay Area, Tri-Valley Home sales and results

chris greenman — Tue, 29 May 2007 21:02:00 +0000

Well the stats are in for the last year from the California Association of Realtors. Byron, Brentwood, Martinez, San Ramon, and Fairfield get hammered by double digit losses for home prices. Berkley, Union City, Dublin, Livermore, Alameda, and Lafayette stay in single and double number increases. This is a natural balance occurring, and an even better indicator of places that will weather most any housing storm, considering many experts believe the worst has passed.

Memorial Day weekend has passed us by, I will give everyone quick updates on how this will effect Livermore Real Estate in the next few weeks. Traditionally this is when things start heating up, stay tuned.

A shift for the better for Livermore Real Estate

chris greenman — Thu, 24 May 2007 00:03:00 +0000

There is something in the air in Livermore. It is the sound of Realtors starting to call me on some of the listings I have. After about a month or two of little to no phone calls, I have received over 10 calls this week for availability of some of my listings. What does this mean? Well possibly we are starting to see a turn around in the Livermore Real Estate Market. I will keep all readers informed on the trend. Lets cross our fingers and hope that after seeing the San Francisco market (A historical indicator of the Bay Areas success) increase over the last month, that Livermore is not far behind.

Livermore is a diverse community, with a very high percentage of home-owners

chris greenman — Wed, 16 May 2007 20:27:00 +0000

I have been e-mailed several times to post demografic statistics for Livermore, so below are the latest statistics I could find, enjoy.

Median resident age: 35.0 years.Median household income in 2005: $96,632 (it was $75,322 in 2000).2005 median house/condo value: $662,100 (it was $314,600 in 2000).Median gross rent in 2005: $1,314.Percentage of residents living in poverty in 2005: 6.2%

Races in Livermore:
White Non-Hispanic (74.4%)
Hispanic (14.4%)
Other race (5.3%)
Two or more races (4.5%)
Filipino (2.2%)
American Indian (1.6%)
Black (1.6%)
Chinese (1.0%)
Asian Indian (1.0%)

As it would be imagined in a great City of Livermore, the population represents very similar demographic patterns to the country itself.

Price your Livermore house right and it will Sell

chris greenman — Mon, 07 May 2007 20:36:00 +0000

Its real simple, follow the stats and your eyes will open. We are not in a market that we were in two years ago. We are in a buyer's market. Keep this in mind not only if your planning on buying a home but also if your planning on selling your home. If you price your Livermore house like everyone else, your house will sit. However, if your realistic, and not in a fantasy world, then price your house accordingly, it will sell. We had over 100 houses sell last month. For all my blogger reader's, I think we have about 40 constant based on e-mails. I am so confident that the real estate market is close to the bottom and so confident that there are very good deals out there, I am willing to go into an investment with a select few of you that wish to take advantage of this market. Let me know! I will put my money where my mouth is.

Pending houses in livermore proves history's lessons

chris greenman — Thu, 03 May 2007 02:12:00 +0000

The pending house sales in Livermore reached a interesting milestone last week. It seems that 52% of the houses that are pending fall into the 300K-550K range. The rest of the pending homes are 550K and above. What does this say about Livermore's real estate? Basically that history dictates housing patterns. Entry level housing stays the strongest in a down market like the one we are experiencing. However, one can also assume there is still room for more of a downturn since this is the segment of housing that adjusts lasts and goes up first in a better market.

Don't become too alarmed though, recent stats from the Bay Area Association of Realtors says that Tracy and Livermore actually saw an increase in home value by 1.5% last month. Because of this often time conflicting data it is real important for us to keep a careful eye on the Livermore Real Estate market and look for more convincing numbers.